April 6, 2010
COLDSTREAM, BC – What will the North Okanagan look like by 2031? And, more
important, how will the region's projected population growth affect future job growth?
The Regional District of North Okanagan (RDNO) can't answer those questions with
certainty, but with the official release of the Regional Growth Strategy population,
housing and employment forecasts, the Regional District has peered into its crystal ball
and identified several possible outcomes.
Two reports look at the region's long-term growth in both population and employment
through 2031. The reports are a requirement of the Regional Growth Strategy process
under Part 25 of the Local Government Act. The reports, while strongly influenced by
statistics and projections, were based on the issues the region may face in the future.
The projection models are all based on extrapolations of currently existing data for
growth trends.
Over the coming decades the region’s population is projected to increase, at an
anticipated growth rate of 1.1% per year, from 78,877 residents in 2006 to 104,233 by
2031, or over 32 percent. Over the last two decades (1986-2006), the RDNO grow by
approximately 23,800 residents or 43 percent.
The greatest demographic increase will be seen in the 65-plus population, which will
grow at an annual rate of 2.7% and, by 2031. As a result, the seniors’ proportion of the
population will grow from 19% in 2006 to a third of the population in 2031. In addition to
impacting the future of housing demand, the significance of these shifts also lies in the
anticipated decreasing supply of people in the workforce to support the inevitable
increase in demand for health care and services required by a larger number of seniors.
The number of North Okanagan housing units is projected to increase from 35,241 in
2006 to 46,136 in 2031. Non-residential (second or vacation home) housing demand,
based upon 2006 Census figures, may increase the North Okanagan housing need by
an additional 1,505 units.
The majority of new housing is anticipated to occur within Greater Vernon (City of
Vernon, District of Coldstream, Electoral Areas “B” and “C”), representing 81.5% of the
housing demand within the North Okanagan. Although strong population growth is
projected in the City of Armstrong, City of Enderby and Village of Lumby, with their
relatively small populations, will only comprise approximately 14.5% of the housing
demand.
The labour force in the North Okanagan is expected to grow by an estimated 14.4%
between 2006 and 2031, or about half the rate of population growth. With few working
age people (18-64) and a high proportion of seniors, the overall labour participation rate
is expected to continue declining over the next 20 years. This trend will represent an
increase in the local experienced labour force of about 5,500 people. Most of this
additional workforce will be concentrated in the City of Vernon.
The labour force participation rate falls significantly after 65 years of age, and thus the
corresponding number in the experienced labour force does not keep pace with the
growing population forecast for the North Okanagan. The aging of the population which
will result in lower labour force participation rates, increasing retirements producing the
majority (62.5%) of available positions, and reduced growth in labour supply. Currently,
the average North Okanagan resident is 4 years older than the British Columbia
average, and this trend is expected to continue into the future. Without greater
immigration of people between 19 and 45 years of age, the North Okanagan will struggle
to maintain current levels of economic development due to labour shortages.
Based upon the employment outlook, the strongest employment growth will be in the
service sector, health care, education and professional services. Agriculture and
manufacturing within the North Okanagan are expected to contract slightly over the next
20 years.
The North Okanagan will continue to face a number of growth management challenges
in maintaining its economic competitiveness and high quality of life. The Regional
Growth Strategy, as a key strategic planning document, will assist in addressing these
challenges.
The full reports, entitled Population and Housing Trends and Forecast: 2008-2031
and North Okanagan Labour Supply and Demand Forecast: 2006-2031 are available
on the Regional Growth Strategy website.
For more information:
Anthony Kittel
Regional Growth Strategy Coordinator
Regional District of North Okanagan
9848 Aberdeen Road
Coldstream, BC V1B 2K9
Tel: 250-550-3750
Cell: 250-309-2159
Fax: 250-550-3701
anthony.kittel@rdno.ca
