North Okanagan Population and Housing Trends and Projections: 2006-2031 (935Kb PDF) explores the implications of demographic growth and change in the context of housing demand. Based on Statistics Canada 2006 Census estimates, the Regional District of North Okanagan (RDNO) population was 77,301 in 2006.Compared to the rest of the province, the Regional District has an older population - the average North Okanagan resident is 4 years older than their British Columbian counterpart. 

Key findings from the population projection are:

• The North Okanagan will continue to experience a net natural decrease in population throughout the projection period (i.e. more deaths than births);
• The population growth to 2031 will be driven solely by net migration to the North Okanagan;
• The population is projected to increase from 78,877 in 2006 to over 104,233 in 2031;
• The fastest growing communities within the North Okanagan will be within the Greater Vernon Area, including the City of Vernon (1.45%), District of Coldstream (1.26%) and Electoral Area ‘C’ (0.77%) and ‘B’ (0.25%). The established urban communities of Armstrong (1.52%), Enderby (1.46%) and Lumby (0.82%) are expected to experience strong growth as well.
• The seniors’ (65+) population is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.7%. As a result, whereas seniors constituted only 19% of the population in 2006, a third of the population will be over the age of 65 in 2031.

Some of the key findings from the housing projection are:

• The number of North Okanagan housing units is projected to increase from 35,241 units in 2006 to 46,136 units in 2031, based upon on population growth.
• The majority of new housing is anticipated to occur within Greater Vernon (City of Vernon, District of Coldstream, Electoral Areas ‘B’ and ‘C’), representing 81.5% of the housing demand within the North Okanagan. Although strong population growth is projected in the City of Armstrong, City of Enderby and Village of Lumby, with their relatively small populations, will only comprise approximately 14.5% of the housing demand.    
• The average household size is projected to fall from 2.4 persons per household in 2006 to 2.2 persons in 2031; although household size will vary by community, and

Employment

The North Okanagan Labour Force Supply and Demand Forecast: 2006-2031, (645Kb PDF) prepared by Peak Solutions Consulting Inc, provides an overview of labour supply and demand until 2031.

One of the most important issues for the labour force in years to come will be the retirement of the baby-boom population. The proportion of the working age population in older age groups, which have lower age-specific participation rates, is expected to increase in coming decades as the “baby boomers” age into their retirement years.

The RDNO employed labour force is 36,925. Of the employed labour force a full 31,825 or 86.2% of the employed labour force participants had a regular place of work, with 4,420 or 12.0% working from home and the remaining 74.3% have a usual place of work. If we add those workers that work from home, approximately 55% of the labour force works within the same community as they reside. However, 8% of the labour force, or approximately 2,520 workers, travel outside RDNO to their usual place of work.   

The table below highlights the change in labour force and population over the period. The aging of the population, the increase in absolute number of retirees and declining labour force participation rates after age 55 will continue to be a challenge within the North Okanagan.  

RDNO Experienced Labour Force Forecast by Jurisdictions, 2006 to 2031

Note 1: The Experienced Labour Force on First Nations Reserves inside the North Okanagan Regional District have been excluded from the forecasts.